Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.822440 0.963909 1.122349 1.312970 1.536155 1.789295 2.098375
2024-10-20 0.568839 0.746388 0.968597 1.267274 1.658652 2.154707 2.832404
2024-10-27 0.434489 0.617854 0.866230 1.227556 1.740664 2.444710 3.487115
2024-11-03 0.363938 0.552421 0.824645 1.246946 1.887129 2.824068 4.305183
2024-11-10 0.329701 0.529472 0.834445 1.334591 2.136882 3.378501 5.455892
2024-11-17 0.293217 0.495133 0.818979 1.377071 2.318619 3.850190 6.546008
2024-11-24 0.257652 0.455411 0.787161 1.385270 2.441761 4.240106 7.555313
2024-12-01 0.225559 0.415836 0.748526 1.373843 2.526229 4.571753 8.507276
2024-12-08 0.199722 0.382978 0.716030 1.366886 2.614851 4.918581 9.531821
2024-12-15 0.180673 0.359543 0.696697 1.380231 2.740825 5.347142 10.767369
2024-12-22 0.157139 0.323846 0.649070 1.331694 2.739343 5.531683 11.549986
2024-12-29 0.151972 0.323930 0.670696 1.423278 3.028948 6.323216 13.672292
2025-01-05 0.133039 0.293286 0.627314 1.376897 3.031585 6.542784 14.650823
2025-01-12 0.116649 0.265762 0.586807 1.331217 3.030191 6.756276 15.656339
2025-01-19 0.102868 0.241900 0.550705 1.289625 3.031040 6.973390 16.701579
2025-01-26 0.095393 0.231312 0.542444 1.310009 3.176103 7.532852 18.628798
2025-02-02 0.093430 0.233421 0.563424 1.402111 3.503876 8.560347 21.841382
2025-02-09 0.088508 0.227575 0.564801 1.446751 3.722451 9.358054 24.606688
2025-02-16 0.081986 0.216737 0.552531 1.455367 3.851608 9.953828 26.946054
2025-02-23 0.075083 0.203878 0.533399 1.443359 3.925242 10.418516 29.008815
2025-03-02 0.069128 0.192666 0.516947 1.436048 4.010312 10.924766 31.264092
2025-03-09 0.064707 0.184999 0.508769 1.450071 4.155858 11.612941 34.137205
2025-03-16 0.058021 0.170018 0.478847 1.399066 4.111477 11.775055 35.523832